December 16th, 2011 will figure in history not only as the 20th anniversary of independent Kazakhstan, but as a beginning of tragic events which took place in Zhanaozen, a small city located in the west of the country.
This is the commentary by Dosym Satpaev, a political analyst, on what could trigger the disturbance.
‘Don’t shoot at your people!’
According to Satpaev, it is neither the USA, Turkey nor Russia which stand behind the protest action. It is an inner conflict and a result of a ‘steaming boiler’ which had been boiling for so long that it finally exploded.
Government pretended that nothing was happening and thought that appearing problems could be solved by just firing or threatening people. Two thousand workers were discharged and as a result, people came out on the streets. Only after several people were killed, authorities began neutralizing reasons of dissatisfaction.
The Kazakhstan of today is two worlds inside the same country. The first Kazakhstan is a world of high-ranking officials who assess the work done not by results, but by the money stolen. The second Kazakhstan is a world of people who don’t receive what they have been promised to.
As for ill-wishers from the outside, it is unlikely that it was their work, just as Mukhtar Ablyazov and Rakhat Aliev have nothing to do with the demonstration.
Some people assume that it was the government of Kazakhstan that initiated the action. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan has always been trying to make the world think it was the land of stability and well-being. The demonstration, however, undermined this belief and threw first of all the country’s goverment into confusion.
Unfortunately, government didn’t want to eliminate the problem beforehand and waited until the last moment to become a ‘butcher’.
In today’s reality, punitive measures and informational vacuum, which governments usually choose in cases like this, make the situation only worse.